Heavy Rains Caught Texas Off Guard Despite Some Warnings Days in Advance

Several days before July 4, there was growing concern about a flood event in the Texas Hill Country and/or Concho Valley. I'm a weather nerd, and I will often take a look at various weather models and check out what they have to say about upcoming weather.

In the days leading up to the catastrophic Hill Country flood, a few weather models showed the possibility of isolated pockets of massive downpours in the Hill Country. Rainfall totals of over a foot were indicated.

While browsing social media, I noticed a meteorologist or two taking heed of these models and advising residents in those areas to be wary of the weather. Those warnings, however, never really took root.

By late in the day on July 2, most weather models showed a rain event moving into central Texas over the next 24-48 hours, but rainfall accumulations of an inch or two seemed to be the going consensus.

We posted a story on July 3 that included the possibility of flooding in the Texas Hill Country.

READ MORE: 4th of July Forecast Includes Isolated Flooding

Forecasting Is Not An Exact Science

Let me loudly say that I am not here to place blame. Forecasting is NOT an exact science. There were many atmospheric variables in play on July 3rd and 4th, which led to the wide variances in forecast models.

If the vast majority of weather models are in agreement with a certain outlook, then it makes sense to go with that scenario as the official forecast.

I get that...but we've got to do better.

Becoming More Proactive With Minimal Threats

Even though it was considered a remote chance, several computer models and a few meteorologists were expressing growing concern about a late-night flood event in the Hill Country and Concho Valley.

The question is, at what point should residents and campers be seriously advised of a POSSIBLE flood threat? If only a few models are showing a flood event, but the general consensus is that it won't happen, shouldn't authorities still warn those along a river or creek that there is a SLIGHT danger?

I think there needs to be a very meaningful discussion about this and how we can be more proactive.

I don't mean for this to sound like a knee-jerk overreaction, and I may be way off base. It's just that my heart breaks when I see all these stories and pictures of those who passed away in the flood, or who are still missing.