Severe Storms May Develop in East Texas Around Bedtime Tonight

A cold front is expected to push into east Texas around midnight tonight. Showers and a few thunderstorms should develop ahead of that front as it moves into our region.

What Type of Severe Weather Can We Expect?

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of east Texas in a level 2 of 5 risk for severe weather late tonight and through early Monday.

This 'slight' (yellow-shaded) risk area includes Austin to Shreveport and throughout much of the Mississippi River basin.

Tornadoes are always the biggest concern of any severe weather threat. Thankfully, forecasters aren't expecting an outbreak of twisters. A few tornadoes could occur in this area, especially from Vicksburg, MS to Jackson, TN, however, damaging straight-line winds over 50 mph and large hail are the largest threats.

Anyone living in the yellow-shaded region above has a 15% chance of being within 25 miles of an occurrence of marble-sized hail.

Timing of the Storms

A few scattered showers and storms may develop well ahead of the cold front late this afternoon across east and southeast Texas. However, as the cold front advances, a somewhat solid squall line should move into east Texas late this evening.

The map above shows thunderstorm probabilities from 7 p.m. to 11 p.m. Greenville, MS to Nashville, TN is the area with the highest odds of widespread thunderstorms. In fact, a tornado watch is already in place for much of that area.

This map (above) shows thunderstorm probabilities from 11 pm until 7 am (Monday). The National Weather Service in Shreveport is forecasting that Lufkin, Nacogdoches, and much of the Pineywoods will experience the best chance of storms between 9:30 pm and 1 am.